4/12/09 - Editorial, "Cold War and Thaw"

In what the Agon Tribune hopes will be a recurring feature, tonight we bring you an editorial direct from your humble Editor in Chief, Edmund Grain. The current cold war between the great powers of Agon is a surprisingly hot topic these days, the subject of much grumbling and speculation, and today the Tribune would like to take some time to address community concerns and provide the unique view of Darkfall's only impartial news source. So, without further ado, the Agon Tribune is proud to present, "Cold War and Thaw."

In running the Tribune I tend to get a bird's eye view of the Darkfall world. Trends become apparent to me that a viewpoint limited to a single clan or alliance might miss, and I can tell you: technologically and politically, we are about to reach a turning point. Agon's status quo exists on borrowed time.

Technologically, Agon has already advanced far since release: the days of mobs in banded mail swarming through permanently open gates are over. Superior equipment and significant new technologies, especially the increasing use of artillery by alliance militaries, are making their presence felt even in the current geo-political quiet. The one technology which has yet to be significantly harnessed, and which I think will bring huge changes to the politics and warfare of Darkfall, is shipbuilding. With the advent of large, armed ships, alliances will gain the ability to deploy their forces in combat zones across the world with a speed and cohesion the current 'mount up and haul for the target' paradigm cannot match. As we will see, this evolution forms the lynchpin of the changes soon to come in Darkfall.

Under the current practice of large mounted armies charging together across the continent, a current major troop deployment can face up to 2/3rds losses in attrition from lag and disconnects alone before even reaching their target--and unless Aventurine changes the server structure of Agon I expect a hard cap on feasible troop deployments will remain. As alliance officers come to grips with the true logistical challenges of Agon--not simply maintaining supplies, but keeping a force in balance with server limits--we will see a dramatic shift in how Darkfall militaries operate.

Once the alliances gain an understanding of the thresholds of force density by region we will see a transformation from the current system of set-piece battles around specific strongpoints into a more fluid, strategic style of warfare, which will see compact, distinct deployments of manpower across large combat zones, supporting but no longer centering exclusively upon settlements and fortifications. A DUSK/Death Alliance joint operation in Mirendil against the SB Alliance on 4/11/09 exhibited some of these characteristics: DUSK forces besieged the actual objective while LoD troops fanned out eastward into the countryside to defend against a possible Hyperion counteroffensive (which, incidentally, never materialized). The two alliances recognized both the need to achieve strategic objectives beyond merely assaulting their prize, as well as the liability of focusing all their combined forces into a single region. Their failures, however, were in fluent command of logistics: the LoD force suffered terrible attrition from lag-based disconnects before ever reaching the combat area due to over concentrating their forces in the long ride from LoD territory. The two alliances executed their objectives, but did so inefficiently--and efficiency is the true sign of excellence in war, not just victory.

I remain confident that at least some alliance commanders will gain this fluency and transition fully into a strategic paradigm of warfare. This shift, combined with the ability of navies to move precise quantities of manpower at high speed across vast distances, will make the high seas extremely important for transportation, especially in a war between powers where valuable objectives can be both multifarious and geographically distant from one another. Controlling travel through the seas, restricting the enemy's ability to deploy forces through their navy while retaining that capability for themselves, will constitute an essential concern for all major militaries.

I believe the great powers have already begun this transition. There are whispers of every major faction focusing their resources on shipyards and naval facilities, and as I said above certain groups are already transitioning into a true strategic mindset. As these capabilities evolve the ability of the major powers to utilize their large populations effectively in war (as opposed to the current, inefficient zerg,) as well as the need to acquire more resources to fuel the industries which make strategic warfare possible, will necessitate expansion. Economic and population pressure will lead to increaed political tension, and eventually strike the spark that ends the status quo. I anticipate that the current cold war, a natural outgrowth of the political structures that arose in the opening weeks of Darkfall's life, will thaw before the end of April. And I expect the military doctrines I outlined above to take hold in those conflicts--at least in the successful parties of those conflicts.

The community is now experiencing a calm between two eras: the heroic age, when the first clanstones were claimed and the first great alliances forged, and the high age, when technology and social sophistication will reach a pinnacle elevated by the combined resources of vast stretches of unified territory, allowing for large-scale warfare and industry across Agon. So don't worry! Everything will get much more exciting in the weeks to come.

What we really have to worry about is what comes after the high age. Either a single alliance or coalition will rise to dominance, establishing a true hegemony over Agon (with the rest of the world's political groups surviving in its shadow), or the world will go in the other direction. As we saw in the early weeks of Darkfall, seemingly steady alliances can collapse under pressure--note the disintegration of the North Agon Alliance when their bid for control of Niflheim failed. That alliance was reduced to a rump of hamlets along the border between Hyperion territory and the Tribelands as the Dvergheim Compact. There is a significant possibility that the large power blocs of today will dissolve under the pressure of a Great War between the powers, resulting in a fractured political landscape--a dark age, where no single body can gather the resources or support the numbers to match the power of the old alliances and technology, or at least its widespread availability, regresses.

While I can make educated guesses as to how the cold war will go hot, and even when, I cannot yet see how it will end. Too many factors remain unknown--too much of the current political structure has yet to face its trial by fire. I am sure of one thing, though--those who complain that Agon is stagnating need not be worried for long. Every winter ends, and with spring comes the thunderstorm.

Edmund Grain,

Editor in Chief

agon.tribune@gmail.com